14 Rules for Geopolitics

I came across this from Quartz, The 14 rules for predicting future geopolitical events. Meh, it’s OK. I thought it worth noting here if you’re into frameworks for big, complicated, impossible to fully model stuff.

They added a 15th rule. I’d call it the mutual distrust itchy finger preemptive principle.

I’d add my own 16th, by simply copying a quote. The respected Swedish diplomat Axel Oxenstierna had a son who would soon serve as a delegate to a major international negotiation. He was worried about his capabilities and nervous about standing shoulder to shoulder with the world’s most experienced and eminent statesmen and diplomats. Pappa¬†Oxenstierna said to him “Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?”

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