I came across this from Quartz, The 14 rules for predicting future geopolitical events. Meh, it’s OK. I thought it worth noting here if you’re into frameworks for big, complicated, impossible to fully model stuff.
They added a 15th rule. I’d call it the mutual distrust itchy finger preemptive principle.
I’d add my own 16th, by simply copying a quote. The respected Swedish diplomat Axel Oxenstierna had a son who would soon serve as a delegate to a major international negotiation. He was worried about his capabilities and nervous about standing shoulder to shoulder with the world’s most experienced and eminent statesmen and diplomats. Pappa Oxenstierna said to him “Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?”